Snail Mail Recovery

A debate in the House of Representatives grew stormy when specific solutions to halt inflation were proposed. The issue proved so divisive that several congressmen almost came to blows.

Just as pandemonium was about to erupt, Congressman Morris Udall took the floor. "I think we should let the Post Office handle the inflation problem," he reportedly said.

A stunned silence gripped the House as members tried to comprehend the statement. "They wouldn't solve the problem," Udall continued, "but they'd certainly slow it down."

The chamber burst into laughter, and the debate resumed in a more civil tone. - Cannibals in the Cafeteria: And Other Fabulous Failures, 1990

Slow down is the reality we're seeing across the economy, including crypto.

Anyone who has been in crypto for at least a year has had their expectations of how long it should take an asset to grow completely altered.

Once upon a time many were content with their 5% ING savings account, and 12% portfolio returns. Then along came crypto and massively shifted those expectations.

100%+ returns, made in a few hours, was the norm from mid-2020 to NOV '21.

Anyone who know how to copy/paste code could create the next 10X+ blockchain, NFT, DeFi app, or metaverse.

Then as Warren Buffet so appropriately said it, "Only when the tide [of money] goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."

From Terra Luna, to Celsius Network and Three Arrows Capital –  the current stress test showed clearly those who were over-leveraged, playing stablecoin roulette, and essentially swimming naked.

The aftermath still has the market in PTSD mode.

What's sobering to know is that our analysis on June 14th, was right.

There's significant money in the $18.5K - $21K range.
Which adds confirmation to trend force forecast of more down.
More longs will be liquidated. - Follow The Money

Flussssh went the market to about $17.6K.

Such events are needed to place asset prices in the extreme zone.

Everyone loves a bull run and most ignore when such an extreme is heading into the stratosphere of a shorting opportunity.

When the rocket runs out of fuel, gravity mercilessly does its job as witnessed in Jan '18.

The market has now crashed back to earth with lots of headline carnage and lessons learned. Some projects will survive, other's won't.

No different than the tech boom of 1995 - 2001. The ones who survive and build back better will thrive when the market is ready for the next move up.

And for now, the sentiment is too fearful to fathom any hope of an uptrend.

Historically, when this long zone is visited, the recovery can take months. This is where trend forecasting helps to level-set expectations about "Wen moon?".

For our premium subscribers, here's your edge in understanding how much lower the market is likely to go based on the data...