Don’t fear failure. Fear being in the exact same place next year as you are today! – Anon

Last week, we looked at several examples of traders/investors whose research and conviction led them to make millionaire and billionaire status trades.

Access to capital, timing, patience, experience, and the right intel made the difference.

Let's contrast this to two people in investment history who experienced the failure of not having intel and timing on their side.

Ron Wayne infamously sold his 10% stake in Apple for $800 in 1976.
Today, that 10% stake would be worth over $200B.

Ron now lives in a mobile home park in some obscure part of Nevada.
Miss the vision and miss billions.

Back in 2008 Bank of America's CEO, Ken Lewis, "due diligence" led the company to buy Countrywide for a too good to be true bargain, about $4B.

Months later, the truth came out as the financial system shattered and revealed Countrywide's subprime mortgage schemes.

Bank of America's share price tanked over 90%.

Over $500B in market capitalization evaporated!

Plus the final gut punch – having to pay over $40 billion in fines and settlements.

Invest $4B and lose over $540B.
(Don't feel too bad for Ken, he exited with a healthy golden parachute.)

In hindsight, failure always looks obvious.
The real skill we all need to refine is seeing the early warning signs in real time.

What's fascinating is that these two stories showcase themes we often see in crypto.

There are a group of crypto users who chronically miss the vision of a crypto project and get out too earlier. Like Ron did.

They not only miss the growth season, they are unstable as sea waves when it comes to making a decision about getting back into the project or staying out.

Then there's the group in which their due diligence rarely goes deep enough, as greed ultimately drives their bias.

Gamblers banking on a tip they read in a random Discord channel. Hoping their "under the radar" NFT or DeFi coin will create tidal waves of cash. Like Ken thought.

Missing crucial signals in crypto's evolution can be the difference between being on the money-making side and the money-losing side of a trend.

Many times it takes pain and experience to learn how to spot the early warning signs of a soon-to-fail project versus the promising signals of a built-to-last project.

As much as we're intrigued by the vision of DeFi – right now the hacks and rug pulls are too often and too risky. More time is needed to refine security best practices and insurance protection.

While DeFi irons out the kinks, based on our analysis for the days ahead, trading the built-to-last projects looks to be the play of the season.

Let's see what Smart Monie AI is forecasting for the next 30 days...

Bitcoin's Trend

Week 14 of 52

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